Home Viewpoints

TOPICS
401(k)
Bond Fund
Bonds
Commodity Investments
Cybersecurity
Equity Investing
Europe
Events
Exchange-Traded Funds
Federal Reserve
Financial Markets
Financial Stability
Fixed Income
Fund Governance
Fund Regulation
GMM
Global
Government Affairs
ICI Global
IDC
Index Fund
Interest Rate
International
Investment Education
Investor Research
Money Market Funds
Mutual Fund
Operations and Technology
Policy Research
Retirement Policy
Retirement Research
Savings
Shareholder
Taxes
Trading
Treasury
ARCHIVE
Pointing Fingers at Index Funds Won’t Explain Market Volatility
By Shelly Antoniewicz
February 14, 2018
With all the recent volatility in the US stock market, two questions are frequently being asked:
- Are fund investors fleeing the stock market?
- Are index funds causing market turbulence?
The short answer to both questions is no.
Experience and research show that investor flows to and from mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tend to track market returns. Historically, those flows have tended to constitute a small share of fund assets. Recent activity is no exception.
Yesterday, ICI published data showing that investors redeemed, on net, $21.8 billion in domestic equity ETF shares for the week ended Wednesday, February 7—a week that includes the sharp market drop of February 5. (Domestic equity ETFs are those that invest primarily in the stocks of companies listed on US stock exchanges.)
Figure 1
Last Week’s Net Redemptions of Domestic Equity ETFs Were Not Abnormally High
Percentage of previous month’s assets, weekly*
* Flow for the week ended February 7, 2018, is a percentage of December 2017 assets.
Source: Investment Company Institute
Though sizable in dollar terms, the $21.8 billion that investors redeemed from domestic equity ETFs is not large as a percentage of fund assets—in fact, it amounted to just 1.1 percent of the assets of domestic equity ETFs, as shown in Figure 1, above. That drop is not out of line with several other, far less memorable weeks in the past five years. In fact, the gold medal for the largest outflow on record goes to the $23.6 billion outflow recorded almost four years ago exactly, during the week ended February 5, 2014. Then, as now, the Winter Olympics were about to start, and market volatility jumped. But after two weeks of outflows, domestic equity ETFs resumed their growth.
Redemptions Don’t Drive Volatility
Some commentary has suggested that index funds—and ETFs in particular—have fueled market volatility. Once again, the data undermine that contention.
Investors, especially institutional investors, use ETFs to quickly and efficiently transfer and hedge risks. It’s therefore not surprising that during the recent market turbulence, ETF trading volumes rose—but so did the volume of company stocks traded, as Figure 2 shows. For example, on February 6, $266 billion worth of ETF shares exchanged hands, more than double the value traded on February 1.
Figure 2
Investors Use ETFs to Quickly and Efficiently Transfer and Hedge Risks
Total dollar value of shares traded on US equity markets, daily, billions*
Source: ICI calculations based on Bloomberg and CBOE Exchange data
But most of these trades represent investors exchanging shares of ETFs among themselves. Such trades, which occur in the secondary market, don’t “touch” the company stocks that ETFs hold—that only happens when there are net creations or redemptions of ETF shares. As noted earlier, for the week of February 7, redemptions of domestic equity ETFs totaled $21.8 billion, and represented a mere 1.2 percent of the $1.8 trillion in company stock that changed hands that week. In other words, while company stocks traded heavily, only a very small fraction of that volume can be attributed to ETFs.
Economic Developments Drive Volatility
Throughout history, macroeconomic events—not particular market instruments—have driven the direction and volatility of markets. The recent spike in volatility occurred because a higher-than-expected increase in wages stoked concerns that inflation could pick up, which could in turn lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster and further than previously anticipated.
As Figure 3 shows, volatility spikes when the world turns uncertain—regardless of the level of index fund assets. In contrast, market volatility was notably subdued from 2012 to 2017, even though assets in index funds grew from $2.5 trillion to $6.7 trillion.
Figure 3
Equity Market Volatility Is Driven by Macroeconomic Events
Annualized 30-day realized volatility of S&P 500*
* As measured by the 30-day rolling standard deviation of daily returns on the S&P 500 index; 2018 data are as of February 9.
Note: Index fund asset data include ETFs and index mutual funds.
Sources: Investment Company Institute and Bloomberg
Despite their recent rapid growth, index funds remain a relatively small part of US stock markets, as shown by Figure 4. At year-end 2017, index mutual funds and index ETFs held only 13 percent of US stock market capitalization—far less than the 40 percent figure reported by some sources. Actively managed mutual funds and actively managed ETFs held another 17 percent, while other holders—including hedge funds, pension funds, life insurance companies, individuals, and others—held the remaining 70 percent of US stocks.
Figure 4
Index Fund Share of US Stock Market Is Small
Percentage of US stock market capitalization held by mutual funds, ETFs,* and other holders
* Note: Prior to October 2009, data for index ETFs include a small number of actively managed ETFs.
Sources: Investment Company Institute and World Federation of Exchanges
Market turmoil can be dramatic and unsettling, and it’s natural for commentators and the press to look for causes and consequences. But it’s wrong to assign responsibility for the market’s movements to specific investing vehicles, such as index funds. And it’s wrong to assume that fund investors react to market moves with panic. Time and again, history has proven that they don’t.
Shelly Antoniewicz is ICI senior director of industry and financial analysis.
Permalink: https://www.ici.org/viewpoints/view_18_index_volatility
TOPICS: Equity InvestingExchange-Traded FundsFederal ReserveFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityIndex FundInterest RateInvestor ResearchMutual FundTrading
Americans Rely on Stocks to Meet Their Financial Goals as Much as Ever
By Sean Collins
January 17, 2018
The following ICI Viewpoints is a letter to the Wall Street Journal by Sean Collins, ICI chief economist, in response to an article published on January 4, 2018:
Are America’s individual investors missing out on one of the biggest bull markets in history? No. The Wall Street Journal’s account (“As Dow Tops 25000, Individual Investors Sit It Out,” January 4) is based on anecdotes and selective use of data.
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityMutual FundSavings
New ICI Paper Helps Readers Understand ETF Listing Processes and Standards
By Jane Heinrichs and Kenneth Fang
August 10, 2017
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been a part of US markets for more than 20 years, and they remain some of the most highly regulated financial products, subject to multiple and sometimes overlapping statutory schemes.
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFund RegulationInvestment Education
Funds Actively Seek Companies’ Sound Management
By Paul Schott Stevens
July 3, 2017
The following ICI Viewpoints is a letter to the Wall Street Journal by Paul Schott Stevens, president and CEO of the Investment Company Institute, in response to an editorial published on June 22, 2017.
In their muddled and inconsistent arguments, the authors of “Index Funds Are Great for Investors, Risky for Corporate Governance” (op-ed, June 22) rely on unfounded assertions while ignoring clear legal requirements placed on registered funds, their boards, and their advisers...
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded FundsFund GovernanceFund RegulationIndex FundMutual FundShareholder
Top Investment Strategists Sound Optimistic Notes amid Headwinds
By Rob Elson
May 25, 2017
Opportunities abound in today’s market and macroeconomic environment, and it’s up to fund managers to help their investors capitalize on them. That’s the outlook from a panel of world-class investment strategists sharing their insights at ICI’s 59th annual General Membership Meeting, held earlier this month in Washington, DC.
TOPICS: EventsExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsGMMInternationalMutual Fund
Average Expense Ratios for Index ETFs Have Declined
By Shelly Antoniewicz, Sean Collins, James Duvall, and Morris Mitler
May 24, 2017
In yesterday’s ICI Viewpoints post, we noted that our annual report on the asset-weighted average expense ratios of funds—“Trends in the Expenses and Fees of Funds, 2016”—showed that expenses for long-term mutual funds continued to decline in 2016.
TOPICS: Bond FundEquity InvestingExchange-Traded FundsFixed IncomeIndex FundInterest RateMutual Fund
Average Expense Ratios for Long-Term Mutual Funds Continued to Decrease in 2016
By Morris Mitler and Sean Collins
May 23, 2017
ICI recently released its report on the expense ratios of mutual funds: “Trends in the Expenses and Fees of Funds, 2016.” This is ICI's first report that also summarizes expense ratios for exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
TOPICS: Bond FundEquity InvestingExchange-Traded FundsFederal ReserveFixed IncomeInterest RateMoney Market FundsMutual Fund
Mutual Funds and ETFs’ Share of the Corporate Bond Market: What’s the Right Answer?
By Shelly Antoniewicz
January 19, 2017
Participation by mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in US corporate bond markets was a topic of discussion during several sessions held at the American Economic Association Meetings in Chicago earlier this month. Panelists and presenters alike cited “statistics” on the share of corporate bonds held by funds. The funny thing was, they all cited different numbers, running the gamut from 18 to 35 percent.
TOPICS: Bond FundBondsExchange-Traded FundsFinancial StabilityFund RegulationMutual FundPolicy Research
A Proposal that Should Be Popped
By Paul Schott Stevens
December 15, 2016
The following ICI Viewpoints is a letter to the editor by Paul Schott Stevens, president and CEO of the Investment Company Institute, in response to an op-ed published on December 7, 2016, in the New York Times, “A Monopoly Donald Trump Can Pop.”
Millions of Americans could lose the low costs and broad diversification of fund investing under the dangerous proposal outlined in the op-ed by Posner, Weyl, and Morton.
TOPICS: Bond FundEquity InvestingExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFund RegulationMutual FundTrading
The Liquidity Provided by ETFs Is No Mirage
By Todd Bernhardt
June 20, 2016
The article above ignores fundamental information about ETFs, the behavior of investors, and the effects of market structure on the ETF product.
TOPICS: Bond FundBondsEquity InvestingExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityFixed Income
SEC Chair White Expects Continued ‘Bright Spotlight’ on Asset Management
By Rachel McTague
May 20, 2016
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is contemplating several new initiatives governing registered funds, in addition to adopting rules this year on reporting modernization, liquidity management, and the use of derivatives, SEC Chair Mary Jo White announced at the opening session on the final day of ICI’s annual General Membership Meeting (GMM).
TOPICS: CybersecurityEventsExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityFund RegulationGMMInternationalMutual FundShareholder
High-Yield Bond ETFs: A Source of Liquidity
By Shelly Antoniewicz
December 22, 2015
The high-yield bond market has been buffeted recently, as market participants reassessed the risks of this sector and sent prices for many such bonds tumbling.
TOPICS: Bond FundExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityInterest RateMutual FundTrading
Traders, Start Your Engines: After August 24, Exchanges Need to Coordinate
By Jennifer Choi and George Gilbert
November 30, 2015
The extraordinary volatility in U.S. equity markets on August 24, 2015, exposed a significant deficiency in the rules governing these markets’ structure: a lack of harmonization across securities exchanges for reopening trading after a “limit up–limit down” trading halt in a security.
TOPICS: Equity InvestingEuropeExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityFixed IncomeFund Regulation
U.S. Bond ETFs Resilient on August 24
By Shelly Antoniewicz
November 20, 2015
Some observers have suggested that equity market volatility on August 24, 2015, spilled over into other markets and products, in particular to bond exchange-traded funds (see, for example, Bank of England Financial Stability Paper, no. 34, October 2015, pages 26 and 27). In our analysis of the events of that morning, we conclude that U.S. bond ETFs were resilient and largely immune to the turmoil in the equity markets.
TOPICS: Bond FundBondsEquity InvestingEuropeExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityFixed IncomeFund Regulation
The Wall Street Journal’s Dangerous Disservice to Investors
By Mike McNamee
September 22, 2015
For 75 years, mutual funds have successfully met their regulatory obligation to fulfill redemption requests within seven days, meeting investor demands and delivering on their investment objectives through good markets and bad.
Yet the Wall Street Journal seems determined to ignore this established history and the circumstances surrounding it. It has created a liquidity “measure” of its own devising—a test that no regulator has endorsed and no informed market participant would credit. The newspaper uses its self-invented process to imply that bond mutual funds are “pushing the limits” of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines governing fund liquidity.
TOPICS: Bond FundBondsEquity InvestingExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityFixed IncomeFund GovernanceFund RegulationMutual Fund
SEC Chair White Affirms Agency Has Tools to Address Risks in Industry
By Rachel McTague
May 8, 2015
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has the tools it needs to address systemic risks to the extent they exist in the asset management industry, said SEC Chair Mary Jo White at the opening session on the final day of ICI’s annual General Membership Meeting (GMM). White also announced that David Grim—who had been serving as acting director of the SEC’s Division of Investment Management—has just been named director of the division. White said she is thrilled that Grim, a 20-year veteran of the SEC in the investment management area, is taking the reins at a time when the Commission is moving forward to implement proactive regulations for the industry.
TOPICS: BondsCybersecurityEuropeEventsExchange-Traded FundsFederal ReserveFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityFund RegulationGMMGovernment AffairsInterest RateInternationalMutual FundShareholderTreasury
More Unfounded Speculation on Bond ETFs and Financial Stability
By Shelly Antoniewicz and Mike McNamee
April 13, 2015
A recent column in the Financial Times warns of “another accident in waiting” in the growth of fixed-income exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—described as “financial alchemy” that converts illiquid bonds into “baskets” that “trade moment to moment on the stock exchanges.” This “illusory” ETF liquidity will disappear, the author warns, when investors “want to move en masse, and quickly, when the going gets less good.”
TOPICS: Bond FundBondsExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityFixed IncomeInterest RateTrading
Does Liquidity in ETFs Depend Solely on Authorized Participants?
By Shelly Antoniewicz and Jane Heinrichs
March 16, 2015
ICI recently conducted a survey of its members that sponsor exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to collect information on authorized participants (APs)—typically market makers or large institutional investors with an ETF trading desk that have entered into a legal contract with an ETF to create and redeem shares of the fund.
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityTrading
Simple Answers to the Federal Reserve’s Quandaries
By Mike McNamee
February 24, 2015
The Federal Reserve System can’t get past its perplexities on the role of mutual funds in financial stability. Time and again, the Fed’s governors, regional presidents, and staff return to the same hypothetical risks and speculative scenarios in which mutual funds somehow pose a threat to the financial system.
TOPICS: Bond FundBondsExchange-Traded FundsFederal ReserveFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityFixed IncomeMutual Fund
Plenty of Players Provide Liquidity for ETFs
By Shelly Antoniewicz
December 2, 2014
A recent article in the Financial Times’ FT Alphaville blog (“Lies, Damned Lies, and Liquidity Expectations”) focused on a paper published by the Committee on the Global Financial System, an organization that monitors developments in global financial markets for central bank governors.
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded FundsFederal ReserveFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityInternationalTrading
Bloomberg Ignores the Evidence on Bond ETFs
By Mike McNamee
September 26, 2014
In response to “Pimco ETF Probe Spotlighting $270 Billion Market Vexing FSB,” we posted the following comment on Bloomberg News’ website:
TOPICS: Bond FundBondsExchange-Traded FundsFederal ReserveFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityFund RegulationInterest RateInternationalTrading
A Look Inside ETFs and ETF Trading
By Rochelle Antoniewicz and Jane Heinrichs
September 23, 2014
Investors in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are trading shares with each other far more than they are turning to authorized participants to create or redeem shares.
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityMutual FundTrading
Sizing Up Mutual Fund and ETF Investment in Emerging Markets
By Chris Plantier
August 18, 2014
In coming decades, emerging market (EM) economies will need substantial new capital to accompany and sustain their rapid growth.
TOPICS: Bond FundBondsEquity InvestingEuropeExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFinancial StabilityFixed IncomeFund RegulationICI GlobalInternationalMutual Fund
ETFs Don’t Move the Market—Information Does
By Shelly Antoniewicz
March 11, 2014
There they go again.
TOPICS: Bond FundBondsExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFixed IncomeInterest RateTrading
IDC Paper Assists Boards in Oversight of ETFs
By Annette Capretta
October 19, 2012
The Independent Directors Council (IDC) has issued a new paper, Board Oversight of Exchange-Traded Funds in order to assist directors of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in performing their oversight responsibilities. The demand for ETFs has grown markedly as investors—both institutional and retail—increasingly turn to ETFs as investment options in their portfolios. With the increase in demand, sponsors have offered more ETFs with a greater variety of investment objectives. Our paper also may be useful for directors who do not currently oversee ETFs but wish to be more familiar with a board’s oversight role, including those whose fund groups may currently invest in ETFs or intend to launch ETFs in the future.
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded FundsFund Governance
Key Data Undercut Critics’ Arguments on ETFs and Intraday Volatility
By Rochelle Antoniewicz
April 19, 2012
Over the past year, several news stories have focused on stock market volatility, particularly the price swings that occur in the hour prior to the U.S. market’s 4:00 p.m. close. “What’s Behind That Wild Final Hour of Trading?” asked CNNMoney last November.
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded FundsFinancial Markets
The (Dis)Connection Between ETFs and Market Volatility
By Rochelle Antoniewicz
February 23, 2012
In the past year, many commentators have charged that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are responsible for driving stock market volatility to unprecedented extremes.
Proposal to Implement the Volcker Rule Raises Deep Concerns for U.S. Registered Funds
By Paul Schott Stevens
February 14, 2012
Congress enacted the provision of the Dodd-Frank Act known as the Volcker Rule to restrict banks from using their own resources to trade for purposes unrelated to serving clients—something known as “proprietary trading.”
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFund Regulation
ETF Basics: The Creation and Redemption Process and Why It Matters
By Mara Shreck and Shelly Antoniewicz
January 19, 2012
One benefit of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is that they give investors access to a range of strategies and indexes, with the flexibility of transacting throughout the trading day at prices that typically approximate the value of the fund’s underlying portfolio. To see how ETFs accomplish this, one must understand how ETF shares are created and redeemed.
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded Funds
ICI Adds to Educational Resources on Exchange-Traded Funds
By Mike McNamee
December 16, 2011
ICI Adds to Educational Resources on Exchange-Traded Funds.
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded Funds
ICI Responds to Hearing on Excessive Speculation
By Stephanie Ortbals-Tibbs
November 3, 2011
ICI issued the following statement in response to today’s hearing, “Excessive Speculation and Compliance with the Dodd-Frank Act,” before the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.
TOPICS: Commodity InvestmentsExchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFund Regulation
ICI Responds to Hearing on Exchange-Traded Funds
By Stephanie Ortbals-Tibbs
October 19, 2011
ICI issued the following statement in response to today’s hearing in the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance, and Investment, “Market Microstructure: Examination of Exchange-Traded Funds.”
TOPICS: Exchange-Traded FundsFinancial MarketsFund Regulation
Copyright © 2018 by the Investment Company Institute